Showing posts with label Fraser Needham. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fraser Needham. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Hey Hey, Ho Ho, Ten Obvious Reasons Tom Mulcair has got to go -- A Left Chapter review!

Tom Mulcair.

Why is he still there at all?

It is mystifying to anyone outside the NDP (other than the National Post and Toronto Sun whose motives are at best dubious) and mystifying as well to anyone with any political acumen.

It is simply a fact that there is not another mass party in a democratic country that would have allowed a comparable fiasco of a leader to remain in place.

His tenure has seen the worst of both worlds -- an abandonment of principle served with a side dish of electoral failure.

At any rate, the arguments have been made and now it lies with the delegates in Edmonton to decide. But don't let anyone tell you that no one saw this coming...because we did!

For those interested in an unvarnished and unapologetic look at the history of the Mulcair era, here is a The Left Chapter review of the highlights (or possibly low-lights) of the decline and fall of what was an epic catastrophe and an almost operatic tragedy -- that being the end of the NDP's electoral ambitions.

Without any further ado...here are the top ten posts (in terms of hits) about this inglorious era in Canadian social democratic history!

1) Delusion continues to rule the day in Mulcair NDP

By Fraser Needham

In the 2015 Canadian federal election campaign that wrapped up earlier this week, the Justin Trudeau led Liberals won a smashing 184-seat majority government.

Perhaps what is most amazing about the Liberal victory is that the party started in third place in terms of both number of seats and in the polls when the campaign began in early August.

Read More!

2) Catastrophe: The NDP lost because it deserved to

It is, ultimately, astounding how facile and false political narratives come back to haunt those who insist on their veracity.

And so it has happened with the "government-in-waiting" liberal led NDP.

Read More!

3) NDP campaign enters panic mode

By Fraser Needham

If in politics a week can be a lifetime, a month can be an eternity – especially in an election campaign.

Just put yourself in the shoes of NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair’s top strategists to see how much things can change over the course of four weeks. On a late August afternoon when members of the Mulcair team looked out on a bright and sunny day from the confines of the NDP war room, they must have been feeling pretty confident about themselves.

Read More!

4) The NDP's phony “credit card” analogy: a neoliberal conception of the public household

By Matt Fodor

In an attempt to shore up the NDP’s fiscal credibility, Tom Mulcair recruited Andrew Thomson, the fiscally conservative finance minister that served in the NDP provincial government of Lorne Calvert in Saskatchewan.

Thomson is running in the affluent Toronto riding of Eglinton-Lawrence against Finance Minister Joe Oliver.  While the NDP has virtually no chance of winning this Liberal-Conservative battleground riding (it is one of the weakest ridings for the NDP in Ontario), Thomson has become Mulcair’s point man in articulating economic policy.

Read More! 

5) Doubling down on disaster

In the wake of the catastrophic election result for the NDP -- an election that saw the party squander its position as official opposition and "government-in-waiting" and what seemed its first real shot at power -- comes news that the leader who "led" the party there, Tom Mulcair, intends to stay at the helm.

And seemingly, apparently, not in some understandable caretaker role while the party finds a new face to try to mount a comeback, but for the foreseeable future:

Read More! 

6) Only those in the NDP can explain why Thomas Mulcair still has his job

By Fraser Needham

Perhaps one of the most mystifying things in the aftermath of the 2015 Canadian federal election is that NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair still has a job.

Read More! 

7) Morgan Wheeldon, Israel and the triumph of neo-conservative dogma

It would seem that, as with climate change, any serious discussion or criticism of Israel is now essentially forbidden in mainstream politics in Canada -- including within the NDP.

On the heels of backtracking on a perfectly reasonable and, in fact, scientifically factual comment made by star candidate Linda McQuaig about the oilsands, the NDP has now, quite literally, erased the candidacy of Morgan Wheeldon in  Nova Scotia over comments he made critical of Israel's attacks on the Palestinians.

Read More!

8) Mulcair's NDP ran a great campaign! We know this because they say they did

By Fraser Needham

It has now been almost three weeks since the NDP suffered a devastating loss in the 2015 federal election and the party remains shell shocked as to what exactly went wrong.

Read More! 

9) Mulcair doubles-down on the NDP's right shift by defending Thatcherism

This week is the week where I think it can officially be said that the NDP leadership "jumped the shark" from any pretense at ties with its roots as a social democratic labour party to a straight-up and very open embrace of Blairite centrism and neo-liberal "progressiveism".

Read More!

10) The NDP, Nathan Cullen, Paul Dewar and the Canadian social democratic delusion

As we head into 2016 there is little that is more pathetic and disturbing from the point-of-view of that ever narrowing band of Canadian social democrats or "democratic socialists" than the descent of the New Democratic Party into a state of abject delusional thinking and total political irrelevance.


This is highlighted by the party's "group-think" circular emptiness that has led it to a dead end from which there is, at present, seemingly no exit.

Read More! 

See you all next week!

Will delusion and insular group think idiocy carry the day?

Only time will tell.

See also: Is the NDP really still debating Mulcair's failed leadership?

See also: Mulcair's leadership failed even on its own premises -- It is time for the NDP to move on

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

November: Andrew Coyne, Mulcair's NDP, Non-violence and Islamophobia -- The month on The Left Chapter in review

November saw the least number of posts in The Left Chapter's short history with only 20, though it also had the blog's highest number of total hits for any month so far.

While all of the top posts did very well, the first post in terms of hits truly struck a nerve and had the second highest number of hits of any piece on the Left Chapter to date.

Without any further ado the top five posts in terms of hits for the month of December were:

1) Reinforcing male privilege -- The Trudeau cabinet, Andrew Coyne and the mythology of "merit"

You really have to love it when the beneficiaries of the greatest social assistance program in the history of Western Civilization and Canada -- the one that did and has rewarded white men for having been born white men since the day the country was founded -- talk about "merit" to bemoan newly elected Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's decision to make his cabinet have an equal number of men and women, thereby reflecting the actual gender composition of the country.

Read More!

2) Mulcair's NDP ran a great campaign! We know this because they say they did

By Fraser Needham

It has now been almost three weeks since the NDP suffered a devastating loss in the 2015 federal election and the party remains shell shocked as to what exactly went wrong.

Read More! 

3) As Liberals and Conservatives look for success, Mulcair NDP embraces failure

By Fraser Needham

The NDP has become a very funny organization these days.

And by this I mean funny “strange” and not funny “ha ha.”

Read More!

4) Non-violence -- There is a way to stop the cycle

In a world so full of anger, oppression, hate and counter-hate, so full of racism, misogyny, homophobia, bigotry, so full of the disasters of nationalism and the extremism of ideology, it is always seen as somehow naive or utopian to point out that at some moment, somewhere, the cycle of violence has to end.

Read More!

5) North America's wave of Islamophobia -- This is what the start of fascism looks like

This has been a week where the pretence of civility, acceptance and  multi-cultural tolerance has been challenged in North America not just by the usual suspects that are the forces of right wing reaction, but as well by those who call themselves progressive and who should know better.

Read More! 

The top food post for the month was "Slow Cooker Sausage Lasagna"

Do you have a left point-of-view or opinion, a recipe or a story you want to share?

Send them to The Left Chapter via theleftchapter@outlook.com!

Check out our review for the month of October: October: Delusion, catastrophe and panic beset the NDP -- The month on The Left Chapter in review

Saturday, October 17, 2015

The 2015 Federal Election on The Left Chapter in review -- A round-up

During the course of this unusually long federal election campaign The Left Chapter saw 34 posts that were directly related to it.

These ranged from a look at the Liberal's "unicorn and fairy dust" fiscal plan, to the dangerous emergence of dog-whistle, racist politics, to views on why not voting is not the unconscionable option so many present it as.

But, when it came to what Left Chapter readers read the most, all of the top posts were related to the NDP and the, to us, mystifying campaign they ran.

As we head into the last weekend before the vote, here are the top five directly election related posts, in terms of hits, on The Left Chapter since the writ dropped:

1) NDP campaign enters panic mode

By Fraser Needham

If in politics a week can be a lifetime, a month can be an eternity – especially in an election campaign.

Just put yourself in the shoes of NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair’s top strategists to see how much things can change over the course of four weeks. On a late August afternoon when members of the Mulcair team looked out on a bright and sunny day from the confines of the NDP war room, they must have been feeling pretty confident about themselves.

Read More! 

2) The NDP's phony “credit card” analogy: a neoliberal conception of the public household

By Matt Fodor

In an attempt to shore up the NDP’s fiscal credibility, Tom Mulcair recruited Andrew Thomson, the fiscally conservative finance minister that served in the NDP provincial government of Lorne Calvert in Saskatchewan.

Read More!

3) Morgan Wheeldon, Israel and the triumph of neo-conservative dogma

It would seem that, as with climate change, any serious discussion or criticism of Israel is now essentially forbidden in mainstream politics in Canada -- including within the NDP.

On the heels of backtracking on a perfectly reasonable and, in fact, scientifically factual comment made by star candidate Linda McQuaig about the oilsands, the NDP has now, quite literally, erased the candidacy of Morgan Wheeldon in  Nova Scotia over comments he made critical of Israel's attacks on the Palestinians.

Read More! 

4) Mulcair doubles-down on the NDP's right shift by defending Thatcherism

This week is the week where I think it can officially be said that the NDP leadership "jumped the shark" from any pretense at ties with its roots as a social democratic labour party to a straight-up and very open embrace of Blairite centrism and neo-liberal "progressiveism.

Read More!

5) The NDP and budget deficits: Not the Tommy Douglas vision

By Fraser Needham

The 2015 Canadian federal election took another strange turn this week.


NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair committed that his first budget as prime minister would be a balanced one. This seems somewhat strange as Canada appears to be headed into a recession and if the current Conservative government has struggled to maintain services in recent years without running deficits, in what have been stronger economic times, the only way a new government could balance the budget in a weaker economy would be through substantial cuts. The minor revenues gained by an NDP government canceling income splitting for high-income earners and a modest corporate tax increase would not be enough to maintain current spending levels in an economic downturn, let alone meet other campaign commitments such as a national childcare plan.

Read More!

Do you have a left point-of-view or opinion, a recipe or a story you want to share? Send them to The Left Chapter via theleftchapter@outlook.com!


Saturday, October 3, 2015

NDP campaign enters panic mode

By Fraser Needham

If in politics a week can be a lifetime, a month can be an eternity – especially in an election campaign.

Just put yourself in the shoes of NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair’s top strategists to see how much things can change over the course of four weeks. On a late August afternoon when members of the Mulcair team looked out on a bright and sunny day from the confines of the NDP war room, they must have been feeling pretty confident about themselves.

As the first month of the campaign wound down, the NDP sat atop the polls at 37.4 per cent with both the Conservatives and Liberals trailing behind at 28.1 per cent and 25.9 per cent respectively. A roughly nine-point lead over your next closest opponent is certainly not substantial but these numbers suggest the NDP was well within minority government territory and a majority was possibly in reach with plenty of time left to build over the course of this very long campaign.

Moreover, Mulcair’s handlers no doubt must have felt the “front runner” campaign strategy was clearly showing results ever since the NDP began to first top the polls at the end of July. So, continue to run a cautious and risk-averse campaign, make the leader appear a little softer and less angry and everything else would take care of itself. Liberal leader Justin Trudeau would simply fall flat on his face, as he has been shown prone to do in the past with more than a few gaffes. The anti-Harper coalition vote would begin to coalesce around Mulcair and with enough time and momentum, the NDP would certainly get a minority and maybe even a majority government come October 19, if things went well enough.

However, as said, a month is a very long time in an election campaign and things haven’t quite worked out as the NDP had hoped.

Trudeau has done anything both slip-up in this election and has continued to grow and improve as the campaign has worn on. He has performed well in all the debates and run by far the most accessible campaign of all three leaders -- often doing hours-long campaign events with lengthy speeches followed by a town hall question and answer session and finished off with a full media scrum and meeting with constituents. Also, considerably younger and more telegenic than either Harper or Mulcair, the Trudeau campaign has put forward a certain level of energy the Conservative and NDP campaigns simply don’t have.

In contrast, the NDP campaign has, to put it mildly,  been lackluster and uninspiring. It appears if given the choice, Mulcair’s handlers want him in a bubble as much as possible.

Events are shorter and much more controlled than the ones the Liberals are doing. Sometimes the NDP Leader takes media questions and other times he doesn’t. If there is a chance to skip a debate, such as one the Prime Minister is refusing to attend, Mulcair will skip it too.

Overall, the NDP Leader has looked defensive on the campaign trail rather than aggressive. In their desire to make “Angry Tom” look a little less angry, the NDP has made Mulcair look a bit phony and not himself. Not one to smile much, at every campaign event you can bet Mulcair will mug for the cameras and do at least two or three very unnatural looking smiles. One of his best skills is his ability to go on the attack against Stephen Harper -- something Trudeau is not really able to do -- but Mulcair has not been allowed to do this thus far.

For their part, the Conservatives are running the campaign everyone expected but they are doing it better than expected.
 
True to form, Stephen Harper is sticking to his neo-conservative guns and not flinching, whether he is promoting the anti-terrorism Bill C-51, displaying hesitation to take in Syrian refugees or making the Conservatives’ determination to ban Muslim women from wearing the niqab at citizenship ceremonies a central election issue. It has also become very clear over the course of this campaign that Harper has a hardcore support of about 30 per cent of the electorate and this support is not going anywhere.

Plus, the Conservatives have also had a little luck along the way. The Mike Duffy Senate scandal trial happened so early in the campaign that it has had virtually zero effect. And, with economic numbers beginning to show a bit of a rebound in recent months, this has given Harper a little more ammunition to portray the false notion that the Conservatives are good fiscal managers and Canada is not headed into recession.

However, the turning point of the campaign may turn out to be when the NDP pledged to balance every single budget in their first term come hell or high water, recession or economic boom time. In their zeal to outflank the Liberals on the right and impress the business press, Mulcair and company clearly did not think this through and misread the mood of the soft progressives in Ontario they definitely need if they are to be successful.

Ontario polls taken immediately after the NDP’s balanced budget pledge show that it clearly was a gaffe. In early September polling, the Liberals jumped from 31.9 per cent in late August to 40.6 per cent while the NDP dropped from 32.3 per cent to 22.3 per cent. The Conservatives remained relatively the same in the province with a slight jump from 30.8 per cent to 33.8 per cent.
 
Clearly the Liberal promise to run deficits in its first few budgets, in order to stimulate the economy and create jobs, has not only not hurt the party’s fortunes in Canada’s largest province but has increased them. In contrast, the NDP’s absolute no deficit pledge has made the party look not credible. With a low debt to GDP ratio, reasonable long-term economic growth forecast and historic low interest rates, it is clear federal deficit budgets are no longer the concern for voters that they once were.
 
Not even the right wing press was impressed with the NDP’s balanced budget pledge and Mulcair has been dogged by media questions at every campaign stop about how he would meet the party’s social commitments without raising taxes. For some reason, the NDP campaign strategists seem to operating somewhere in the mindset of 1993 instead of 2015.

The latest polling numbers for October 1, show all three parties locked in a three-way tight national race with the Conservatives in the lead at 32.3 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 30.4 per cent and the NDP at 26.8 per cent.
 
And there is no doubt the NDP is seriously panicking. Why are they panicking?

They have squandered an 11-point lead over the Liberals at the beginning of the election. These points are going to be very difficult to get back as Trudeau continues go up and not down. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have grown by about four points since the beginning of the campaign.

What frightens the NDP most is not a Conservative minority but a third place finish behind the Liberals on October 19. This would be seen as a major set back after winning official opposition in 2011 and make the party once again open to accusations that this breakthrough was due more to late leader Jack Layton’s popularity and Liberal dysfunction at the time than anything to do with the rightward shift of the party or the abilities of the party’s top advisors.
 
Perhaps even more disturbing as they look ahead -- with the likelihood of a Conservative minority increasing with each passing day -- is the potential of playing junior partner in a Liberal led coalition government. Playing second fiddle to Justin Trudeau would be like taking cyanide for a number of NDP partisans including their leader.

So the NDP strategy that seems to be emerging amidst the panic in recent days is turning the guns on Justin Trudeau in an attempt to knock the Liberals as far down as possible and ensure a second place finish.

Hence the mantra that is also being pushed on social media by NDP partisans that Thomas Mulcair is “the only real leader” capable of taking on Stephen Harper and that if “you look closely at the numbers” the NDP is the only real alternative to beat the Conservatives and form government with the way the seat totals would break down,  and a variety of other such nonsense. All of a sudden, Thomas Mulcair is not talking about Harper much at all anymore.

When the NDP partisans make the second point, they are clearly pointing to a recent Forum Research poll that pegs the Conservatives at 34 per cent, followed by the NDP at 28 per cent and Liberals at 27 per cent. Under this scenario, Forum Research says the Conservatives would get 151 seats, NDP 104 seats and Liberals 76 seats. What the NDP partisans fail to mention is in the polling firm’s previous two polls in September, the Liberals topped the NDP at 107 seats to 104 seats and 97 seats to 95 seats.

And then there is this fully partisan NDP piece which tries to disguise itself as a somehow objective and complex polling analysis but is anything but. Bottom line is that any way you shake things down, the Liberals are in a very good position to form a minority government or at least finish second in the seat count based on what they have been doing so far, while the NDP campaign is slipping.
 
One-way to ensure a third place finish, however, is if the NDP turns its focus on the Liberals and Mulcair starts attacking Trudeau. Attacks on Trudeau have not worked well overall for the Conservatives and they would be sure to fail even worse for the NDP. Attacking Trudeau instead of Harper would make Mulcair look mean, cynical and desperate and likely cost the NDP even more valuable points in the polls to the benefit of the Liberals.

Instead, if the NDP strategists were wise, the NDP would focus on what initially worked well for them. The party’s staunch and principled opposition to Bill C-51, its position of fast-tracking and bringing in more Syrian refugees, its opposition to the niqab ban, the party’s Senate reform plan and the childcare plan. And at the same time, have the attack dog Mulcair go full guns blazing at Harper and call the Prime Minister to full account for being a dishonest bully, trying to create a divisive Canada and a country full of fear. This would gain the NDP much needed respect late in the campaign and the chips could still fall in the party’s favour in some way.

Wise though this would be, don’t expect it to happen. Wisdom or logic is not something that has been apparent in the NDP campaign thus far.

Image: Flickr/Matt Jiggins

Fraser Needham is a freelance journalist living in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. He has been working and writing in Saskatchewan for the past 15 years. Aside from the Saskatchewan CCF/NDP, he follows Aboriginal issues and politics closely.

See also: It appears the NDP strategists are stuck in the 90’s – again

See also: The follies of the NDP running a right wing populist campaign

Do you have a left point-of-view or opinion, a recipe or a story you want to share?

Send them to The Left Chapter via theleftchapter@outlook.com!

Thursday, October 1, 2015

September: Racist memes, NDP credit cards, stuck in the 90's & more -- The month on The Left Chapter in review

Seen this meme? Well it is total bullshit! 
September saw 32 posts of various types on The Left Chapter.

One of those posts -- on the false and racist Ontario niqab driver's licence meme that has been circulating around the internet -- obliterated all our past hit records and unexpectedly got tens-of-thousands of hits and hundreds of "shares".


It was nice to see so many on social media try to expose what is an appallingly bigoted lie meant to help perpetuate a dog-whistle and ignorant xenophobic agenda.

All around, however, September saw many posts that struck a nerve, so without any further ado here are the top five posts in terms of hits for the month.

1) Stop sharing the false -- and racist -- Ontario niqab driver's licence meme

Have you seen this meme circulating around Facebook and the internet the last few days?

It purports to show a woman on an Ontario driver's licence  wearing the niqab -- a religious headdress a very small number of Islamic women in Canada wear and that is being shamefully used by some politicians as a dog-whistle in the current federal election.

Read more!

2) The NDP's phony “credit card” analogy: a neoliberal conception of the public household

By Matt Fodor

In an attempt to shore up the NDP’s fiscal credibility, Tom Mulcair recruited Andrew Thomson, the fiscally conservative finance minister that served in the NDP provincial government of Lorne Calvert in Saskatchewan.

Thomson is running in the affluent Toronto riding of Eglinton-Lawrence against Finance Minister Joe Oliver.  While the NDP has virtually no chance of winning this Liberal-Conservative battleground riding (it is one of the weakest ridings for the NDP in Ontario), Thomson has become Mulcair’s point man in articulating economic policy.

Read more!

3) It appears the NDP strategists are stuck in the 90’s – again

by Fraser Needham

As NDP strategists mull over the polls this weekend and try to figure out why their shift to the right of the Liberals on the issue of balanced budgets and deficit financing doesn’t seem to be playing out as they hoped in Ontario, they might be wise to take some time out and do a little research on the British Labour Party leadership election.

Read more! 

4) Playing the progressive card -- Trudeau's cynical, but clever, "left shift"

Stephen Harper has no plan to grow our economy and no plan to help the middle class, so he's spending your money trying to convince you that I'm not ready.

Here's what I'm not ready for.

Read More! 

5) The follies of the NDP running a right wing populist campaign

by Fraser Needham

Up until a few weeks ago, it looked like the NDP had a pretty good shot at winning the 2015 election and forming its first national government.

Read more!

The number one food post for the month was Ukrainian Cookery Recipes w. Borscht, Vareniki, Cabbage Rolls & more -- Vintage Cookbook

Do you have a left point-of-view or opinion, a recipe or a story you want to share?

Send them to The Left Chapter via theleftchapter@outlook.com!

Check out our review for the month of August!: August: Margaret Thatcher, Morgan Wheeldon, Tom Mulcair, Tommy Douglas & more -- The month on The Left Chapter in review

Sunday, September 27, 2015

An NDP and Liberal merger is now inevitable

By Fraser Needham

The NDP and Liberals will merge and it will happen sooner rather than later.

This may seem like a strange thing to say. After all, both parties have a long history in Canadian politics. The Liberals have been around since before Confederation and the NDP’s forerunner, the CCF, got its start in the Dirty 1930’s of the Great Depression.

Furthermore, both parties continue to be relatively vibrant within today’s political spectrum as can be seen in the current Canadian federal election where both the NDP and Liberals are polling at about 30 per cent. Both parties also have very committed partisans with a long history of disliking each other.

So why would they merge?

In order to understand why this will happen, it is necessary to look at Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.

Since the Reform Party arose on the Canadian political scene in the early 1990’s, Harper and his neoconservative colleagues have succeeded in moving a significant proportion of the electorate to the hard right over the past two decades. Many political observers initially viewed the neocons as little more than another Western protest party but they were wrong. This movement continued to gain steam through its various iterations – first the Reform Party, then the Canadian Alliance and finally the takeover of the Progressive Conservatives and the formation of the Conservative Party of Canada in late 2003.

Along the way, the neoconservatives have never strayed from their core values and have now moved about 30 per cent of the population to their way of thinking. This includes support for a militaristic state in foreign affairs, tough on crime policies, reduced civil liberties in favour of unnecessary anti-terrorism legislation, distrust of any sort of arms length independent agencies such as the judiciary and dislike of what are perceived elites including the media, the arts and academia.

At the same time, Harper has taken the country further down the neoliberal economic path, started by the previous Liberal governments, of corporate, income and consumer tax cuts combined with a reduced role for the state. And along the way, the Conservatives have won two minorities and one majority government and are well positioned to win another minority in this election.

As has also been seen during this election, Harper’s bloc of support will stick with the Conservatives through thick and thin. Whether it is the various Senate scandals including the Mike Duffy trial, poor treatment of war veterans, successive budget deficits, abusing the rules of parliament or Canada’s reduced role in the United Nations, this bloc of support appears to be immovable.

In fact, at various Conservative media scrums in this campaign, Harper supporters have gone so far as to verbally abuse reporters for asking the “wrong types” of questions.

Although the Liberals were elected on a moderately progressive platform in 1993, they then proceeded to move Canada far down the path of economic neoliberalism while remaining a relatively socially liberal party. The 13 years of Chretien/Martin governments are known for eliminating deficits, offloading services on provinces and cutting taxes rather than innovation in or even maintenance of social programs.

During this time, the Liberals relied on a very shaky base of winning almost every seat in Ontario and enough seats in Quebec to maintain power. However, Conservative inroads in Ontario, reduced fortunes in Quebec because of the sponsorship scandal and continued leadership infighting marked the end of the Liberal reign in 2006.

After spending most of the 1990’s and the early part of the millennium in the political wilderness, the NDP began to reemerge at the same time the political fortunes of the Liberals began to fall. Under new leader Jack Layton, the NDP picked up seats in the 2004, 2006, and 2008 elections. And in the 2011 election, the party made a major breakthrough winning enough seats to form official opposition for the first time.

The NDP surge over the past decade is the result of a few things. A lot of it had to do with the personal charisma and organizational skills of the late Jack Layton. Not only did Layton’s high energy style bring a new media savvy to the party, these organizational skills brought a lot of money into NDP coffers and put the party back on stable financial footing. And because of Layton’s popularity in Quebec, the NDP was able to capitalize in this province when the Bloc Quebecois collapsed in 2011.

But a lot of the NDP’s surge has been as a result of the sheer dysfunction of the Liberal Party during the same period. In Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff, the party experienced perhaps the two worst leaders in its history. Neither the party nor the Liberals’ traditional electoral base ever really united behind either of them and the party simply was not a factor in the 2008 or 2011 campaigns.

So by default, in provinces such as Ontario, B.C. and the Maritimes, the NDP began to pick up seats at the Liberals’ expense. Some traditional Liberal voters were indeed peeled away by the Conservatives in these provinces but at the same time soft progressives who had almost always voted Liberal began to vote NDP.

As the NDP began to rise the party also started to move to the right in its 2006, 2008 and 2011 election platforms. Clearly the thinking by those running the party is that by jettisoning most of its social democratic values and embracing free market fundamentals, the NDP has made itself much more credible to the right wing press and center-right voters – the area where they believe there is true room for growth.

Many of these key NDP advisors would argue the gains made in these elections are as much a result of what they would call a more “modern” or “realistic” approach to 21st century policy (translate: more right wing) as they were due to Jack Layton and Liberal dysfunction. Hence, they believe that they can continue to make gains and even form government under a new leader as long as they continue down the path of a rightward shift.

And there is some evidence that appears to validate this theory. After sitting at around 20 per cent in the polls during most of Thomas Mulcair’s first three years as leader, the NDP rebounded strongly this spring as a result of its principled stance against Bill C-51 and the Liberals’ gaffe in supporting the Harper government’s flawed anti-terrorism legislation. Also, the party’s numbers in Quebec have held well since the 2011 breakthrough and these numbers continue to hold during this election campaign. Further, hovering at around 30 per cent in the polls so far and in a virtual tie with both the Conservatives and Liberals, the NDP still has a good shot at forming government or at least improving the party’s seat count.

So, although NDP strategists are likely somewhat disappointed with how the campaign has gone thus far and would prefer to at least be building a bit of a larger lead over the Liberals, there is no doubt they see no reason to alter the course of the party’s rightward shift with the ultimate goal of replacing the Liberals as the only serious alternative to the Harper Conservatives.

However, there is substantial reason to believe that the NDP’s rightward shift was the wrong way to go and will now lead to the party’s ultimate demise – sooner rather than later.

If those leading the NDP had been able to think more clearly about what would be the best strategy to maintain itself as a social democratic party and position it as the party to replace the Liberals in the near future, they would not have started the rightward shift that began in 2006. With the Harper Conservatives moving to polarize one part of the political spectrum on the right, the NDP would have been far wiser to try to polarize the other part by moving left.

In fact, there are good reasons to believe soft progressives who had steadfastly supported the Liberals through three elections were starting to tire of the party by 2004 after ten years of neoliberalism and austerity. Where the Liberals had once relied on the convenient excuse of not being able to deliver on their social promises because of the harsh recession of the early 1990’s, this was no longer the case at the beginning of the new millennium.

When Jack Layton and the NDP chose to prop up the minority Liberal government in 2005 in exchange for reversing some tax cuts and further protection against privatization of Medicare, it was a very smart move to do so. Further, when the NDP voted down the government and helped force an election after the Liberals failed to deliver on their health care promises, they were also right to do so.

However, by moving the party steadily to the right over the past ten years since then, there is no end game. Had the NDP started to shift left and created a more polarized political atmosphere, it would have really put the Liberals in trouble and perhaps put the party into the final political wilderness from which it would have never returned – similar to what happened to British Liberal Party in the 1930’s. Because of the Liberals’ dysfunction, the NDP would have still gained the same progressive voters they picked up during the last decade but would have done it on a left platform. And, by sticking to their core social democratic principles, the NDP could have been successful in moving a portion of the electorate left and more in tune with the party’s traditional beliefs.

Further, the NDP would have by no means needed to shift radically left but could have done so on a gradual basis. Essentially, all the NDP would have needed to do is call for reasonable measures that would have begun to rebuild the Canadian welfare state back up to what it used to be. Measures such as more progressive income taxes, a steady stream of corporate tax increases with the goal of returning to rates similar to those of other G7 countries, increased funding and a federal role in provincial social programs, greater funding of post-secondary education and a call for a cross-Canada tuition freeze, a willingness to open up the free trade agreement and examine and potentially change the parts that are not working, less dependence on trade with the U.S. and greater trade relations with Europe,  a plan to help institute public auto insurance in all provinces, a plan to work with the provinces to set a living wage, getting the country’s climate change program back on track and other policy moves along these lines.

Sadly this did not happen and the NDP has now shifted so far right that the party is virtually identical to the Liberals. It is so obvious that only the most hardcore and committed partisans within each of the parties can see any difference between the two anymore.

Take for instance the platforms the NDP and Liberals are running on in this election campaign. The NDP wants to institute a meaningless two per cent corporate tax increase but refuses to increase taxes on the very wealthy. The Liberals are willing to raise taxes on the very wealthy by a meaningless one per cent but refuse to increase the corporate tax rate.

The Liberals are willing to run deficits to invest in infrastructure and job creation but it appears highly unlikely they would be able to do this based on the numbers they are presenting. Does anyone remember the great Liberal Red Book promise of a job creation infrastructure-spending program in 1993? It never happened and neither is it likely the 2015 version will happen either. The NDP also plans to spend money on infrastructure and create jobs too but at the same time while balancing every single budget. Their infrastructure plan is even less likely to happen than the Liberal plan.

The NDP says it will raise the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour. The only problem is that this would affect almost no minimum wage workers across the country as most minimum wage workers are under the provincial minimum wage. It would not be much of a stretch for the Liberals to get behind this plan as it costs virtually nothing and will help virtually no one.

The NDP also says it will institute a $15 per day national childcare plan. However, with the numbers the party has put forward it is clear they would never get there. The Liberals once had plans for a national childcare program too but were unwilling to put in place the money to see it come to fruition either when they were in government.

The NDP has stood against the Harper government’s flawed Bill C-51 anti-terrorism legislation and the Liberals voted in favour. However, because of the bill’s unpopularity amongst many Canadians it is likely that if push came to shove, the Liberals would be willing to reverse their support.

Both parties are in favour of small business tax cuts even though it has been shown that this does little to stimulate the economy. Both the NDP and Liberals now fully support free trade and the free and unhindered movement of capital. Both parties have no interest in increasing federal transfers to the provinces for social programs or in creating any sort of uniformity in the accessibility of these social programs across the country. The NDP and Liberals will also continue to abdicate the federal government’s role in properly funding post-secondary education and have no problem with tuition rates continuing to increase rapidly every year, thereby further decreasing accessibility.

Both parties are interested in talking about fighting climate change but have no real interest in reducing Canada’s reliance on fossil fuels. The NDP and Liberals are more hesitant to give unquestioning support to the oilsands and pipeline projects than the Conservatives but are not willing to really do anything that would hinder their expansion or progress. Both parties are also fully committed to NATO.

So, a few things have become clear during this election campaign. There is an anti-Harper voting bloc in the electorate of about 60 per cent. This bloc has become tired of the Harper government’s neoconservative policies including making Canada a warmongering state, continued disrespect for the judiciary, information control, disrespect for independent and arms-length agencies and manipulation of the rules of parliament to name a few. At the same time, as we have seen, the Conservatives have a very committed voting bloc of about 30 per cent of the public.

It also appears that the Liberals have managed to survive their worst years in the party’s history and are on the upswing under new leader Justin Trudeau. There is no doubt that Trudeau has stumbled from time to time but over the course of this campaign he has demonstrated himself as a capable leader, particularly when compared to his two predecessors. It is almost certain Trudeau will improve the Liberal seat count come election day and the party still has a decent shot at winning a minority government. Justin Trudeau will be around as Liberal leader for some time to come.

So, this is where we sit – in a virtual deadlock with a three-way party tie. And, there is no reason to believe that the deadlock that currently exists between the NDP and Liberals is going to change anytime between now and election day. The anti-Harper bloc simply can see no difference between the two parties and nor should they. In fact, a number of voters have taken to displaying both Liberal and NDP lawn signs during this campaign and not as a joke. Many are waiting until October 19 before deciding which party they will support but it is unlikely either the Liberals or NDP will give them any help in terms of making up their minds. It is quite likely a number of voters will simply have to flip a coin in terms of deciding which party to vote for.

If an election were held today, it could likely be a Conservative minority while either NDP or Liberal minorities remain distinct possibilities. Regardless of which party wins a minority on October 19, it makes little difference to the overall larger picture.

It is now clear that neither the NDP nor Liberals have the ability to score the knockout punch both would like to deliver to take out the other. So, regardless of which party wins the election, the public pressure for an NDP/Liberal coalition as a means of stopping the Conservatives will be huge. But when you have two parties that are virtually now identical in all of their core beliefs, the next question will be why not a merger, instead of just a coalition, as a long-term solution to stopping Harper?

After the election those leading both the NDP and Liberals will also likely find out that the anti-Harper public will be far less patient than the partisans in each of the parties in terms of delaying a merger. This sector of the public will not look kindly upon either party that insists on what are now fictitious differences in order to prevent a merger and all the while create the distinct possibility of more Conservative minorities and even majorities down the road.

In theory, the merger should be much easier for the Liberals than the NDP. After all, regardless of what the new party is called, it would essentially be an expanded Liberal Party as the NDP has now adopted all of the Liberals’ core values.

Such a merger would certainly be more difficult for NDP partisans but will they really have much of a choice in the matter? After virtually becoming a Liberal party on their own, they can either choose to continue contesting elections against another political party who is different in name only or join forces with the Liberals and severely limit a possible Conservative return to power. It is assured the anti-Conservative public will not look kindly upon the former option.

Those leading the NDP will, no doubt, be mystified at the corner they have now painted themselves into after the 2015 election. Then again, they should have thought far more clearly about this before pursuing a path that has made the NDP virtually a Liberal clone.

Fraser Needham is a freelance journalist living in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. He has been working and writing in Saskatchewan for the past 15 years. Aside from the Saskatchewan CCF/NDP, he follows Aboriginal issues and politics closely.

See also: Liberals release fiscal plan that seeks to avoid austerity with unicorns and fairy dust

See also: NDP spending document creates more questions than answers

Do you have a left point-of-view or opinion, a recipe or a story you want to share?

Send them to The Left Chapter via theleftchapter@outlook.com!

Sunday, September 20, 2015

Mouseland -- A 21st Century Vision


by Fraser Needham

Once upon a time there was a place called Mouseland.

And even though the majority of animals in this place were mice, and this is why it was called Mouseland, it had always been ruled by either black or white cat governments. So, not surprisingly, these governments were quite adept at passing laws that were good for cats but not so good for mice.

So, one day, the mice had had enough and they created their own mice party. Many mice were active in this party and they set about drafting and debating policies they felt would truly best serve mice. These policies were then put into election platforms of the mice party and this party began to contest elections.

It wasn’t too long before the mice party was winning seats in the Mouseland legislature. And, although the black and white cat parties still held more seats than the mice party and were able to continue forming governments, with their new party the mice were able to put enough pressure on the government so that the odd time the cats actually passed some laws that were good for mice. What progress!

The long term goal the mice believed in was that if they continued to work hard and compete in elections with their new party, they would one day gain enough seats to form government. And, when this happened, a mice party government would be able to pass laws and create a society that was truly beneficial for mice and history would be changed forever!

However, although the mice worked very hard and continued to contest elections, progress was slower than initially anticipated. In some elections the mice party would gain seats, only to see them lose these same seats in the next election. This was because the issue at hand in elections was far more complex than mice voting for a mice party. Some mice continued to vote for the black and white cat parties because this is all that they had ever known. Many other mice did not vote at all.

But the white and black cats continued to vote in every election as they had always done.
So, while the mice who were active in the mice party continued to believe that if they worked hard enough that they would one day elect their own government, the elected mice began to see things differently. They began to seriously wonder no matter how hard they worked, if they would ever live to see an actual mice party government.

And, they began to wonder what all the fighting was for? They not only had to fight tooth and nail in the legislature to get any mice laws passed against the white and black cat governments, they were always fighting against other powerful forces as society at large remained controlled by white and black cats.

And, the more the elected mice began to spend time in the legislature with the white and black cat politicians and the less time with mice, they began to think perhaps these cats aren’t so bad after all. I mean, there must be some reason why they have always ruled Mouseland and some of their ideas seemed to make a whole lot more sense than they once did.

And, although with everyone watching the mice party politicians continued to kick up a fuss and pretend to argue with the white and black cats in the legislature, after hours it was quite a different story. It was well known within certain circles in the Mouseland capital that the mice politicians had become quite friendly with their white and black cat counterparts. They ate and drank together and started to agree with the cats on many things.

The mice politicians also realized one other very important thing. They could continue to fight with the white and black cat politicians and greater society at large in the hopes of getting a few laws passed to benefit mice which was all of course a lot of hard work. Or, they could try and get along a little better with their white and black cat counterparts, stop all the fighting for limited gain and generally let the cats impose their will as they had always done. The latter option was of course much less work and, at the end of the day; they still got paid the same. Their mice supporters would of course not like this but what choice did they have? They could either vote for a mouse or a cat and they knew that they would almost always choose the former regardless of what the mice politicians said or did.

Not surprisingly, the rank and file mice party members began to complain that things seemed to be moving backwards instead of forwards. The mice politicians had given up fighting for laws to benefit mice and more often than not supported laws that benefited cats. “How did it come to this?” they asked. At the same time, the mice politicians, who now rarely found the time to attend mice party events, even if they were supposed to as set out by the mice party constitution, would chastise the mice when they did find the time to speak to them.

“You just don’t understand,” the mice party politicians would say. “Things have changed and it is much harder to get mice laws passed than we initially thought. The cats control everything and it is next to impossible to get this to change right now. We understand this better than you because we are in the legislature with cats, we know and understand them and they are not to be trifled with. So, the best course of action is to reduce our expectations and build to fight another day. And, unfortunately this means going along with some of the cat ideas just for now. We don’t like it but we don’t really have any choice.”

And so it went for a number of years. The mice politicians continued to challenge their white and black cat counterparts less and less until eventually almost never at all. Perhaps what was most difficult for the rank and file mice was they continued to work very hard and passed resolutions at the mice party conventions with the intention of putting them into election platforms, as had once been the case. Yet, time and again, these resolutions would never make it into the mice party electoral platform but would instead be replaced by proposals that appeared to favour cats. After awhile, the hierarchy of the mice party began to destroy these resolutions and even deny their existence.

The mice party members became very frustrated by this seeming betrayal by the elected mice politicians but still felt they had little choice but to vote for them and hope things improved some day. After all, voting for a mouse had to be better than voting for a cat although this certainly didn’t seem to be the case on a lot of days!

And then one day something very strange happened.

An internal battle within the white cat party, which had been brewing for several years, boiled over and this party effectively imploded. All of a sudden, the white cats couldn’t decide amongst themselves on a leader, they couldn’t decide on policy direction and they certainly couldn’t effectively contest an election. For all intense purposes, they were dysfunctional.

By default, the vacuum created a tremendous opportunity for the mice party. Because of the implosion, some white cats began to vote for the black cat party. However, others began to cast their votes with the mice party. The way they looked at it was the mice party was now running on a platform that, if implemented, would certainly benefit cats and besides; a number of them just couldn’t stand the black cat party leader.

So, without changing course, the mice party began to increase its seat count in elections. And then one day it happened, the mice party won enough seats in the legislature to form official opposition to the black cat government – the first time in the party’s history! The mice were ecstatic! Just a few short years ago it seemed as if they would never form government and now for the first time in history it was within grasp – the next election would be crucial!

And then another strange twist occurred.

One day, the senior leadership of the mice party, along with the elected politicians, got together and brought in a white cat to be the party leader and the mice were even more confused than ever. “How could a white cat possibly lead the mice party?” they wondered. “Wasn’t the main goal of the mice party to elect mice so they could create a society that would better serve mice, once and for all?”
The mice party senior leadership assured them not to worry and that the new leader would address them in good time, explain everything and it would all make sense. And eventually that day came.

As the new leader entered the mice party convention hall the chattering mice fell silent. You could not hear a pin drop as he walked to the podium and prepared to speak.

And very quietly and confidently he cleared his throat and this is what he said:

“Look, I understand your reservations about all of this and if I were you I would probably think the same thing,” he said. “You must certainly be saying to yourselves, ‘how can a white cat possibly lead a mice party?’

“I know it all seems strange but you have to look at the bigger picture. I am a white cat and I understand how they think and I know how to get enough of them to vote for this party so we can win the next election and form government. Many of them trust me and they will trust that I will run this party and a government in their best interests.

“So, what does this mean? It means this mice party will run on an election platform that is more favourable to cats than ever before. And trust me, enough white mice will trust and vote for us so we can win.

“And where’s the catch, what’s in it for mice, you might ask? Once we have won the election and formed government, then we can start passing and implementing laws that will benefit mice. However, we can never talk about this other plan until after the election is won, otherwise it will scare the white cat voters off. Trust me, it is a great trick and it will work. You just keep the mice voters on board and leave the rest to me.”

The mice remained silent for a moment but then a few started to grumble and one particularly brave mouse spoke out and this is what he said:

“I don’t know, it just doesn’t seem right. We run on one platform and then go ahead and do something totally different once we get in government? It seems dishonest. Why don’t we just do like we used to do and run on a platform that will benefit mice? For sure the mice will vote for us and maybe some of the white cats too and so we could still win the election. Lying in order to get in power just doesn’t seem right, as far as I am concerned.”

Suddenly the white cat leader grew very silent and his eyes glazed over. He asked that the mouse that spoke out and the few others that seemed to support him be removed from the convention hall.

And then with a very serious and stern look on his face he began to address the mice again:

“Look, I am going to be 100 per cent honest with you and tell you a few things that are going to surprise and maybe even upset you. You have to understand that not all mice are good. Not even close to it, as a matter of fact. And this includes some mice that have been standing right beside you here in this convention hall that you think are your friends.

“Remember, I am a white cat and I know a thing or two. Some of these mice are Bolsheviks, some of them are Communists and some are anarchists. And some, are even spies for both the white and black cat parties! Trust me, I know and have seen it from the other side.

“Sure, they pretend they are your friends but the last thing they ever want to see is a mice party truly succeed and form government. Now that they see you are so close to success, it scares them and they will do everything in their power to sabotage your success. If they have to twist the facts, lie, cheat – whatever the case may be – they will do it to stop you from succeeding.”

The white cat leader then grew silent again and he looked out across the crowd of mice seeming to lock eyes with each and every one of them before saying, “I think you now know what has to be done,” before waving his hand as a motion to bring the mice who had confronted him back into the convention hall.

The mice came back in and the hall grew silent again – even more so than when the white cat leader had first addressed the convention hall. And then, after what seemed like an eternity but was probably no more than 30 seconds, he nodded ever so slightly to the mice he had most recently addressed.

And then suddenly, without hesitation, the majority of mice in the convention hall turned on the mouse who had spoke out and his few friends and viciously attacked them. The mouse who spoke out was killed within a few minutes but his friends were lucky enough to escape the hall with their lives in tact, if only barely. Not surprisingly they were never seen again.

And so that was that and preparations for the next election campaign began in earnest. And when the time came, the mice party was better prepared then it had ever been for an election and the mice worked harder than they ever had to elect their first government.

And then the day finally came – the first ever mice party government in Mouseland’s history was finally elected! The mice partied long into the night on that day as they talked about all the wonderful things they would do for their fellow mice now that they finally controlled their first government.

They even had to pinch themselves every now and then to make sure it had really happened and was not just a dream.

The next day, the newly elected head of government – the white cat leader of the mice party – returned to the convention hall to address the mice. He had a very self-assured and almost grimacing smile on his face as he approached the convention hall. He had been elected leader of Mouseland and not through a white cat party but a mice party of all things. And he had done it all on a platform that would surely benefit cats. Who would have ever thought, he laughed to himself.

Now all that remained was to speak to these darn mice again. Now that he was leader of all of Mouseland, this is not an event that would be occurring very often in the future. I mean, he didn’t mind the senior leadership of the mice party, or the elected politicians, but these rank and file mice were a damned nuisance as far as he was concerned.

So, the white cat leader entered the hall and gave a very perfunctory speech. He thanked the mice for all their hard work during the campaign and said that this was certainly an historic day for all mice and great things surely lay upon the horizon. He was just about to wrap up his speech when a mouse spoke out from the back of the hall.

This mouse had been loyal to the mice party through thick and thin, through ups and downs, for a great many years. He had stuck with the party even when he did not understand why the leadership was making certain decisions it had made. His loyalty had never wavered and he had even endorsed the white cat leader without question.

“Great leader,” the mouse said, “now that we have won the election and elected our first mice party government, when can we start talking about and implementing the other plan? You know, the secret one we weren’t allowed to talk about during the campaign. The one that will enact good laws for mice and create a society once and for all that is truly beneficial to all mice.”

The white cat leader suddenly looked dumbfounded and was clearly at a loss for words. In all the elation of his election as leader of all of Mouseland, he certainly had not been prepared for what the loyal party mouse had just said.

But, being the seasoned politician he was, he quickly recovered himself and looked straight into the crowd of mice. However, he did not so much look at the mice but above them and a look of hostility came over his face but then quickly passed.

And then, he suddenly broke out into uncontrollable laughter but it was not a laughter of joy but one more of contempt. And for someone outside looking in, it was clear that he was laughing at the mice and not with them.

Finally, when he had further regained himself enough to speak, he addressed the mice again, “Oh we will certainly get to the other um,” he giggled, “plan in good time. You just be patient and wait. It will all happen in good time…”

And before anyone knew it, his handlers were whisking him away from the convention hall and into a waiting car outside as his laughter continued to echo all the way throughout the hall and beyond.

And that was the last time the mice ever saw him.

Fraser Needham is a freelance journalist living in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. He has been working and writing in Saskatchewan for the past 15 years. Aside from the Saskatchewan CCF/NDP, he follows Aboriginal issues and politics closely.

Do you have a left point-of-view or opinion, a recipe or a story you want to share?

Send them to The Left Chapter via theleftchapter@outlook.com!

Saturday, September 19, 2015

NDP spending document creates more questions than answers

By Fraser Needham 

Committing to balanced budgets as the economy slows and recession looms, bragging about a lower corporate tax rate than the G7 average and the U.S., small business tax cuts, increased military and police spending and other social spending commitments buried or not even mentioned at all – sound like a Stephen Harper spending plan?

Well, it very well could be but it was actually Thomas Mulcair and the NDP’s spending plan released earlier this week. Ever since the NDP leader committed that his government would absolutely balance budgets regardless of the state of the economy if elected, he has been on the hot seat to explain how he would do this without raising taxes or cutting social spending commitments. Mulcair immediately moved to dampen expectations in terms of social spending by saying that an NDP government would only pledge to meet its biggest commitment, a $15 per day national childcare plan, by the end of its first term. This was later pushed even further back to perhaps a second term.

Remind you of anyone? This is the old Liberal government trick of pushing social spending commitments further and further back as you continue to cut taxes and spending. Eventually the government is defeated, as happened to the Paul Martin Liberals in 2006, and numerous social spending commitments remain on the table and never fulfilled. Including, as was the case with the last Liberal government, a long promised national childcare plan that was never met.

So, the NDP released its long awaited campaign spending plan on Wednesday and fear not, there are no substantial tax increases. As the party has promised throughout the election, there are no income tax hikes, not even on the very wealthy. There is a meaningless two per cent corporate tax increase which the party document lauds still puts Canada below the G7 average and U.S. rates – as if this is something to brag about.

To put this into context, Canada’s corporate tax rate declined under the Liberals to 21 per cent between 2000 and 2007. It has furthered declined under the Conservatives to 15 per cent. In 1980, the rate was 30 per cent. So, the NDP plan to raise the corporate tax rate to 17 per cent would not even restore revenue to 2007 levels, which of course are woefully inadequate. The current G7 corporate tax rate average is almost 30 per cent and the U.S.’s is 39 per cent.

If the NDP refuses to raise tax levels in any significant way, where are they going to find the money to meet their spending commitments? By closing stock option loopholes for rich CEOs, of course. The NDP document doesn’t say exactly how they plan to do this but the measure is supposed to generate $2 billion over four years – not very much either way. However, seeing as the wealthy employ high priced lawyers to help them take advantage of such stock option loopholes, it seems unlikely an NDP government would be able to crack down on the practice quite so easily.

The NDP plan also says it will generate $580 million over four years by reallocating unspent P3 funds to infrastructure spending. Again, not very much money but how easy would it be for an NDP to reallocate these unspent funds without paying stiff penalties, considering the current Conservative government may very well likely have reached preliminary agreements with private companies on how this money is to be spent?

The document also says $1 billion over four years would be saved by canceling fossil fuel subsidies. However, as a Globe and Mail article points out, finance department documents show no such gains would be made. The same article also points out that it appears somewhat dubious the $5.4 billion the NDP has put aside for health care will not only meet the party’s commitment to increase funding to the provinces by six per cent a year but also cover all of its other health care commitments made during the campaign.

The NDP will put $6.6 billion over four years toward its much-vaunted $15 per day national childcare plan. However, will this really be enough, even to get this program off the ground? Considering in order to make the program work a federal NDP government would likely have to take on more than 50 per cent of the costs in the poorer Maritime provinces.

And, of course, young people are not left out of the NDP’s spending plan. The party will slate $1.4 billion over a term to an area called “Opportunities for Young Canadians.” This money is supposed to go toward helping young people get jobs and help with the cost of post-secondary education. However, the document does not mention, and there is certainly no intention, of either freezing or lowering the skyrocketing cost of post secondary education – the number one obstacle that is currently limiting the economic success of Canada’s young people.

Several other promised spending measures are noticeably absent from the document. Such as the NDP’s promise to reinstate door-to-door Canada Post home delivery, instituting a carbon tax or any other environmental measures. At the NDP’s press conference to announce its spending plan, the party did admit it would have to eliminate its pledge to increase foreign aid by 0.7 per cent of GDP.

However, one commitment that is certainly not left out is the NDP’s pledge to increase spending on military and policing. In the first year of its mandate, an NDP government would spend $185 million to make Canada more “safe and secure” and this would increase to $398 million in the fourth year for a total of $1.4 billion.

Another spending promise that the NDP is holding true to is the party’s pledge to cut the small business tax from 11 to nine per cent at a cost of about $3 billion. As NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair has reminded us over and over again during this campaign, small businesses are the heart of our economy and the true “job creators.” So the NDP says the long-term benefits of the small business tax cut in terms of jobs and economic stimulus will far outweigh the initial cost.

Unfortunately, Mulcair and company will find few serious economists that agree with them on this point. For example, while tax expert Jack Mintz fully supports cutting the corporate tax rate as a means of stimulating the economy, he cautions against small business tax cuts. In a paper, he writes that roughly 60 per cent of the value of a small-business tax deduction accrues to households earning more than $200,000 per year.

The Globe and Mail calls the numbers used in the NDP spending document “fuzzy at best” and this is being very, very kind.

Quite frankly, this document isn’t worth the paper its printed on.

Fraser Needham is a freelance journalist living in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. He has been working and writing in Saskatchewan for the past 15 years. Aside from the Saskatchewan CCF/NDP, he follows Aboriginal issues and politics closely.


See also: It appears the NDP strategists are stuck in the 90’s – again

See also: Raising Monuments -- How Corbyn may yet turn the tide

Do you have a left point-of-view or opinion, a recipe or a story you want to share?

Send them to The Left Chapter via theleftchapter@outlook.com!

Saturday, September 5, 2015

It appears the NDP strategists are stuck in the 90’s – again


by Fraser Needham

As NDP strategists mull over the polls this weekend and try to figure out why their shift to the right of the Liberals on the issue of balanced budgets and deficit financing doesn’t seem to be playing out as they hoped in Ontario, they might be wise to take some time out and do a little research on the British Labour Party leadership election.

Early projections seem to indicate rogue left wing MP Jeremy Corbyn is poised to win the party’s leadership race on Sept. 12. Corbyn is not only left wing, if he wins the Labour leadership, he would be the party’s most left leader in more than three decades dating back to the early 1980’s when Labour was led by Michael Foot.

The longtime Labour politician has also remained unshakeable in his convictions of what he believes constitutes a truly social democratic society. Or, to put it more succinctly, Corbyn has never advocated tax cuts for the middle class as one way of achieving social democratic goals.

The Blairites are of course horrified but it doesn’t really matter what they think if the majority of the Labour Party membership is behind Corbyn which they appear to be. The British press is already speculating the MP from Islington -- who chooses to wear a suit and tie as little as possible and likes to speak his mind about his left convictions -- could pose a real problem for David Cameron and the Conservatives and actually become Prime Minister in the near future. Some journalists are accusing the Blairites of being stuck in the past and failing to see the on the ground appeal of a guy like Jeremy Corbyn to a significant constituency of voters.

Let’s shift over to the Canadian political scene for a moment.

Although the people running the Federal NDP and its provincial wings these days will never admit it publicly, they are strongly influenced by Third Way politics and the vision that Tony Blair very firmly stamped on the British Labour Party in the early 1990’s. Third Way politics basically says there is no way social democratic parties can get elected anymore on the types of platforms they ran on from the post World War Two period up until the early 1980’s. They believe all voters, including working class voters, have moved on from any opposition to capitalism, favour neoliberal ideology without question, do not believe an interventionist state in the economy can ever have a positive influence, are anti-labour and much more individualistic than they had been in the past.

So wherein lies the hope for social democratic parties as far as how the Third Way sees it? There is a "third way" that can be instituted which means social democratic parties have to far lower their expectations of the past by fully embracing the inequities of the free market, eliminating government intervention in the economy from the policy book, sometimes reducing income taxes and certainly never raising them, being firmly committed to balancing the budget, trying to appear as business friendly as possible and never, ever doing anything pro-labour.

If social democratic parties are willing to accept the cold and harsh realities that the general public has moved significantly to the right, they can then make themselves palatable to voters and actually win elections. What is their advantage over the right wing parties? They are a kinder, gentler form of neoliberal party than the mean spirited right. They seek not to destroy the state but to try to preserve it in the current harsh realities that we live in. Their goal is not to completely eliminate taxes but maybe just keep them where they are or reduce them slightly. These parties are also much more easily able to present themselves as more open minded and liberal parties on social issues than the right wing parties who are really neoconservative parties and believe in a much less socially liberal society.

The Third Way is the strategy New Labour ran and was elected in Britain on in the 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections. It was the platform that was used in Saskatchewan that saw four straight NDP governments elected from 1991 to 2003. It is also the strategy that has been used by the Manitoba NDP that is now in its fourth consecutive term after winning power in 1999. A lot of NDP strategists would probably argue that the short-lived Bob Rae NDP government in Ontario in the early 1990’s might have lasted longer had it been willing to accept Third Way strategies a little more fully or at least a lot sooner.

However, all of a sudden the Third Way strategy doesn’t seem to be working as well as it once did. New Labour lost the 2010 British election and was soundly defeated in this spring’s election by the Conservatives. Many of its losses came at the expense of a much more left Scottish Nationalist Party.

In Saskatchewan, the NDP was soundly defeated by the right wing Saskatchewan Party in the 2007 election and then thoroughly routed by them again in the 2011 election – suffering the party’s worst electoral loss since its very early CCF days. The once formidable Saskatchewan NDP now sits rudderless and directionless in opposition with only a rump of nine seats. The party is not positioned to win the next election and it could be a number of years before they are competitive again. To give the Saskatchewan Party credit, they were forward thinking enough to shift slightly left after their surprising 2003 election loss – eliminating any public fears that they would privatize Crown corporations, generally maintaining existing government services and shedding the image of being nothing more than a neoconservative party trying to move the province to the hard right.

The B.C. NDP was supposed to be a shoe-in for government in the 2013 election as a discredited Liberal government appeared to be on its way out. However, the party ran on a moderate centre-right platform and was soundly defeated. The Manitoba NDP is likely headed for defeat in the next provincial election. The Nova Scotia NDP was elected for the first time on a centre-left platform in 2009 but only lasted one term being defeated by Liberals in the 2013 election.

And perhaps the biggest screw up of them all – the Ontario NDP’s bizarre decision to trigger an election in the spring of 2014 and then run on a right wing populist platform. Right of, you guessed it, the Liberals this time around.

Every thing they did in the campaign seemed designed out of some sort of Mike Harris/Rob Ford handbook. The NDP railed out against government excess and tried to position itself as the party of small business. It lashed out at the Toronto “elites,” which was pretty much anyone who questioned their ethics or motives, and wondered why many unions in the province decided not to support them after the NDP was running a campaign that was in many ways hostile to labour. They accused the Liberals of running a fiscally irresponsible campaign when in reality the Liberal campaign was hardly fiscally ambitious at all. The party even decided to place a cover ad in the Toronto Sun of all newspapers – you know – to reach out to all their blue-collar right wing friends who read it.

And it all made such “common sense.” Except to voters of course who decided to re-elect the Liberals to a majority on election day and reward the NDP with a third place finish.

Now the Federal NDP strategists will tell you the party ran on a centre-right platform in the 2011 election winning more seats than it ever has and becoming the official opposition for the first time in the party’s history. However, if they were actually honest -- and in their current state of hubris they most likely wouldn’t be -- they would admit that the party’s good fortunes had much more to do with the strange circumstances of that particular election than anything that was in the NDP platform.

First, the Liberals hit what will be for them likely rock bottom running under a leader which is the worst the party has ever seen in its modern history in Michael Ignatieff. Ignatieff wasn’t even able to hold his own Toronto seat.

Second, after almost 20 years of successful campaigns in Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois completely imploded and bit the dust leaving a tremendous opportunity for another party to become dominant in the province. With the Liberals remaining largely discredited in Quebec since the sponsorship scandal and the Conservatives quickly wearing out their welcome after the 2006 election, the NDP was able to seize that opportunity and fill the gap.

Third, and most important, the NDP was very well served by their late leader Jack Layton who admirably decided to fight the campaign despite suffering the effects of a recent hip replacement and what later came to be known was terminal cancer. In his fourth campaign as party leader, Layton caught on like wildfire across the country but no more so than in Quebec where his meteoric increase in popularity there sealed the deal for the NDP in the province.

The point of all this is the NDP might actually want to try something that would be considered a little “radical” to those people running the party these days. Rather than always shifting right why not shift a little left? Maybe consider that working people might actually be a little bit fed up after 25 years of neoliberal policies and lies that have left them worse off than at any time since before the Second World War. That people may not be so easily tricked into the deficit hysteria as they were 20 years ago. That they even may be willing to pay a bit more in income taxes if this means better public services.

In general, why not just try and run on the values your party was founded on rather than someone else’s? You certainly would make your base happy and give your party members and campaign workers something to believe in again and you might just gain some votes and a little respect at the same time.

It also likely wouldn’t splatter as much egg on your face as promising to balance the budget heading into a looming recession.

Just a thought.

Fraser Needham is a freelance journalist living in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. He has been working and writing in Saskatchewan for the past 15 years. Aside from the Saskatchewan CCF/NDP, he follows Aboriginal issues and politics closely.

See also: The follies of the NDP running a right wing populist campaign

See also: Playing the progressive card -- Trudeau's cynical, but clever, "left shift"

Do you have a left point-of-view or opinion, a recipe or a story you want to share?

Send them to The Left Chapter via theleftchapter@outlook.com!

Friday, September 4, 2015

The follies of the NDP running a right wing populist campaign


by Fraser Needham


Up until a few weeks ago, it looked like the NDP had a pretty good shot at winning the 2015 election and forming its first national government.


While a majority government is most likely out of the cards for any of the three main parties, there were strong reasons to believe the NDP could win a minority government and be supported by enough Liberal seats to stay in power for at least a few years.

After an initial bump in the polls under new leader Justin Trudeau, the Liberals had stumbled for most of this year. Trudeau has not performed strongly in the House of Commons and his bizarre notion of creating a politically independent Senate that still remains appointed by the prime minister is just plain goofy. Further, Liberal support of the Harper government’s draconian Bill C-51 which is an all out assault on civil liberties, is a major political error for a party that purports itself to be an adherent of human rights.

On the contrary, NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair is no doubt intelligent and well versed on the issues of the day. He has performed strongly in the House and time and again taken apart the Harper government on the Senate scandal, Bill C-51 and the Syrian and Iraq military missions. The NDP gained a lot of points for its principled stand against the Conservatives’ highly flawed anti-terrorism legislation, its proposal of Senate abolition is a reasonable one and call for an affordable national childcare program long overdue. The last decade of Conservative abuse of power has created a very strong anti-Harper coalition and the NDP had positioned itself strongly over the Liberals to take advantage of the majority of this coalition.

This was all until the election campaign actually began.

One would have thought the NDP strategy for the campaign would be one that makes their leader look open and accessible as a means of the public getting to know him and contrasting him to Harper. This could have been followed by a few more well thought out and moderately social democratic policy proposals to supplement the childcare plan. The overall plan should have been to try to position Mulcair and the NDP as genuine and with the best interests of all Canadians in mind with solid and defensible policy proposals that would move Canada moderately to the left. This was the strategy that was used under Jack Layton in 2011 and worked very well. It would also have positioned the party extremely well to take advantage of the soft liberal voters in the urban areas of Ontario that will determine the outcome of this election.

However, what is the campaign that the NDP has actually run thus far?

The party has decided to run a closed, scripted and for the most part right wing populist campaign since the election began. Mulcair sometimes will talk to the media but other times he won’t such as at the party’s campaign launch. Like Harper, he is choosing to attend some debates but not others. And again, like Harper, the NDP leader can’t be bothered to attend a debate on women’s issues but you better believe he will be there full force to discuss foreign policy at the right wing think tank Munk debates. The policy proposals are mostly little more than gimmicks that can easily be torn apart upon further inspection. Remind you of anyone?

Yes -- exactly -- this is the type of campaign Stephen Harper and the Conservatives like to run.

The NDP has tried to hide behind various curtains in order to justify this strange campaign strategy it is currently running on. The latest and most amusing one is that the absolute commitment to balance the first budget, as we head into an economic recession and with no knowledge of the current state of government finances-- which are likely bad -- is what Tommy Douglas would have done.

So what are the real reasons behind the NDP running a largely right wing populist campaign?

The strategy is largely based around a move to appeal to the elusive Ontario Rob Ford "swing voter".

You know, the middle aged white guy who wears a baseball cap, drinks Tim Horton’s coffee and likes Don Cherry. He lives in the suburbs and absolutely despises the Toronto “elites.” He likes to think of himself as a blue collar, hardworking type of guy. The Rob Ford voter really doesn’t care for government much at all but he pays his bills and balances his cheque book every month and believes the government should too. For the last nine years, the Rob Ford voter has voted for Stephen Harper but this time around he is very angry at the Conservatives – all the Senate scandals, poor treatment of the war veterans, the continued running of deficits, etc.

So the NDP strategy is one where they run a tightly scripted, controlled and hopefully error free campaign. Who cares about all the debates? Most voters don’t watch them anyway, except for maybe the Toronto elites, and these are not our target swing voters regardless. So, put out a few right wing populist planks to appeal to the angry Rob Ford voters and count that your base stays by holding its nose and voting NDP, as it has always done, on election day.

What about the soft liberal voters who are basically the same people as the so-called”Toronto “elites?” Well, they will certainly be horrified and see the right wing gimmicky appeals for what they are but the NDP hopes a number of these voters will see Mulcair as far more competent and prime ministerial than Trudeau and still the best option for defeating Harper. However, the NDP strategists will likely admit another group of them will probably decide to stick with the Liberals, though they probably would have done this either way.

Heck, even Mulcair’s strange adoration for Margaret Thatcher may pick up a few points with the Rob Ford voters as no doubt a number of them admire the Iron Lady. So, the NDP strategists likely weren’t too worried when this transgression, from when Mulcair was a Quebec Liberal politician, leaked out a few weeks back.

So you get all the gimmicky and mainly right wing populist policy proposals the NDP has put forward in this campaign. The NDP will fight climate change but support the oilsands at the same time. The party will put in a very minor corporate tax increase but refuse to raise taxes on the wealthy. They will raise the federal minimum wage even though this will affect almost no minimum wage workers. The NDP will balance its first budget in the midst of a recession even though they know this to be an absolute lie – whatever party is elected on Oct. 19, they will have to run a deficit in order to prevent the economy from sinking into a further recession.

What about the childcare plan? Well, you know, it will come at some point in the future but we can’t tell you exactly when. You have to understand it took the Saskatchewan CCF 20 years to bring in Medicare.

So, aside from the absolutely unethical and morally bankrupt premise of a “supposedly” social democratic party playing a right wing populist game which only further reduces public expectations of government in a desperate attempt to gain a few votes, there is another reason why this flawed strategy won’t work (some NDP partisans actually believe that the right wing populist strategy, while perhaps morally questionable, is justified by the real goal of getting elected so they can then institute some real social democratic policies that were too dangerous to talk about in the campaign. Keep dreaming folks!).

The reason this strategy won’t work is because the Rob Ford voter is more or less a myth. What is not a myth is there is a significantly large swath of blue collar voters – unionized and non-unionized – who have historically always voted Conservative and they are not going to change now regardless of what the NDP says or does. This problem has constantly plagued the party since its inception in 1961.

At the same time, the very real soft liberal Ontario voters, who had been drifting over to the NDP in the months leading up to the campaign, are now drifting back over to the Liberals as a result of the party’s recent campaign strategy and are more willing to overlook Trudeau’s Bill C-51 screw up.

As a matter of fact, a slightly different form of this campaign strategy was tried in last year’s Ontario election by the ONDP and it resulted in a third place finish and the re-election of a majority Liberal government. So, one really has to wonder why the party is trying to execute it again.

Meanwhile, with each passing day, Trudeau is gaining more confidence out on the campaign trail running a far more accessible and open campaign than Mulcair is. He is not stumbling so far as some of the NDP and Conservative strategists hoped he would. And although there are certainly times when Trudeau puts his foot in his mouth, he does have the family legacy behind him and a lot more charisma than the other two leaders.

Say what you will, but he does seem kind of genuine. Something Mulcair does not every time he speaks out of both sides of his mouth or breaks into one too many fake and wooden smiles for the cameras.

It is still early in the campaign and there are sure to be many more twists and turns. However, if the current narratives hold it could result in two scenarios very unfavourable to the NDP. If the anti-Harper vote splits fairly evenly between the NDP and Liberals by Trudeau running a far better campaign than expected and the NDP running a far worse one, the Conservatives get re-elected with a minority. Or, if the Liberals are able to pick up enough traction over this very long campaign as Trudeau continues to improve, the Liberals could get in with a minority government. In either scenario, Thomas Mulcair is the odd man out on Oct. 19.

Fraser Needham is a freelance journalist living in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. He has been working and writing in Saskatchewan for the past 15 years. Aside from the Saskatchewan CCF/NDP, he follows Aboriginal issues and politics closely.

See also: Death of a delusion: The ONDP's internal fictions and the Sudbury by-election loss

See also: The NDP and budget deficits: Not the Tommy Douglas vision

Do you have a left point-of-view or opinion, a recipe or a story you want to share?

Send them to The Left Chapter via theleftchapter@outlook.com!